New York Session
Published: December 3, 2008 4:33 PM

Not even another bad batch of economic data could keep stocks from rallying ahead of what is expected to be aggressive rate cuts out of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank tomorrow in early NY.  US equities pushed higher by more than 2.5% on top of a near 4.0% rally yesterday.  US economic data was dreadful once again but was mostly shrugged off.  ADP employment fell by a steeper than expected -250K and suggests there is a good chance we get a -400K NFP print this Friday.  Meanwhile, the ISM services index plunged to a record low 37.3 in November from a previous 44.4 print.  If that wasn't enough, the Fed's Beige Book later in the session noted that the US economy weakened across all areas since the middle of October.

 

Risk trades in FX were bid on the back of the stock market rally.  EUR/USD jumped about 80 points into the 1.2700/10 zone just ahead of the NY close.  The 1.2770 level looks like the next trigger for upside here.  EUR/JPY jumped roughly 120 pips and was near 118.60/70 while USD/JPY rose a more modest 35 points as selling of the safe haven buck kept the pair relatively subdued.  The 119.00/10 level in EUR/JPY and 93.70 in USD/JPY look interesting and a break here should spur some decent strength.  USD/CAD gave up gains despite a sub $47/bbl close in oil as the political scuffle up north suggests a stimulus package for the Canadian economy will be on the table.  The pair closed about -30 points lower into the 1.2535/45 area.

 

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) Prior Estimate

12/03 23:50 GMT JN Capital Spending 3Q -6.50% -9.80%

12/03 23:50 GMT JN Capital Spending excl Sftwre 3Q -7.60% -10.90%

12/04 00:30 GMT AU Trade Balance OCT 1460M 1410M

12/04 00:30 GMT AU Building Approvals (MoM) OCT -7.20% 0.00%

12/04 00:30 GMT AU Building Approvals (YoY) OCT - - -21.50%


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